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A Study on Factors Influencing the TERRORIST Damage -Focusing on the Mediating Effect of Ripple Effect-

Vol.3 (No.1) 2018
Author
admin
Date
2018-06-30 00:53
Views
25

Abstract


This study attempted to analyze the main causes of terrorist incidents. The purpose of this study is to see how it affects terrorist attacks. In particular, this study focused on Ripple Effect. The factors that can be identified before the terrorist attacks were classified as One Ripple Effect as it can detect the phenomenon before the terrorist attacks. These processes would be able to respond in a precise way to reduce terrorist damage.
The result of analysis showed that ideology and poverty of the country were not the factors that raised the level of terror damage. Thus, it was confirmed that the damage was increased in the case of Ripple Effect. This was a natural consequence. However, this study could suggest that the variables constructed to identify the ripple effect were measured as identifiable factors before the terrorist attacks, so that prompt and precise responses were required under the same circumstances.
This study used Global Terrorism Data(GTD) for research analysis. Data was analyzed from 2014 to 2016, and the raw data was used. In order to measure the independent variables that this study wanted to check, variables were transformed and used in analysis. The independent variables used for this analysis were Ideology, Ripple Effect, and Money Demand. In addition, the dependent variable was used as a damage that combines the wounded and Kills(including terrorists) in the event of terrorism. In the final model, the Money Demand variable was not regularized and was excluded. It is the limit of this study that the poverty of the country is to be confirmed through Money Demand. However, it is clear from the point of view that the demand for money is a proof of poverty, and that the research has proceeded.
In conclusion, even in the case of terrorism based on ideology and national poverty, there should be a more precise response to the reduction of damage in the situation where Ripple Effect is predicted. The variables that make up the Ripple Effect include political objectives, message delivery, and terrorist targets. Therefore, even though we did not control many variables, it can be based on the fact that concrete action should be prepared in a situation where there is a concern about ripple effect.

Keyword:Terrorism, Ripple Effect, Poverty, Ideology, Terrorist Damage
  • North Korea is becoming more and more secretive of the cyber duties and activities that use the Internet, and the activities of espionage are becoming increasingly internationalized and intelligent in the Ministry of United Front and Ministry of National Security. For example, it is expanding the base for penetration into China, South-east Asia and Central and South America, strengthening the overseas pro-North Korean organization, and strengthening the foreign embassies. In case of investigating a violation of the National Security Act against cyber security, it is necessary to post several articles about production and distribution of the transfer document so that the unspecified number can see it. The standards of institutions are also different and depend on subjective judgments of judicial institutions. In recent years, the number of deliberations by the Korea Communications Standards Commission(KCSC) has been rapidly increasing over the past five years(2013-2017). In relation to transferring activities in the cyber space, there is a tendency that an unspecified number of people can access before past 2010, so that they can share information. Peer to Peer format in which information can be shared. In other words, cyber attacks have been placed in the key areas of the new security concept and security war, and cyber attacks that transcend national boundaries have been frequent by hostile countries or international terrorist groups, Reality supports this possibility. Therefore, in view of the changing security concept, cyber attacks are very likely to directly threaten national security, so it is important for the agency to perform security related tasks.
    Keyword:National Security, National Security Act, Cyber Crime, Cyber Terrorism, Cyber Security
  • The paradigm shift and the threat of transnational security that are facing the global security threats all over the world are causing changes in the existing intelligence environment. Especially due to the threat from North Korea's physical terrorism, cyber terrorism, ISIL, and the increase in the number of Koreans supporting it, the influx of refugees, international students and workers from Islamic countries, the possibility of terrorism in South Korea is expected to be a constant social phenomenon in the future. Considering the division of North and South Korea on the Korean Peninsula and the continuing provocations of North Korea, the subject of various terrorist attacks that threaten national security and the counterterrorism intelligence environment are areas where the precautionary aspect is emphasized. In addition, since the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks on the United States, the global terrorist response systems of major intelligence agencies and government bodies, including the United States, France, and Germany, have been changing laws and organizations, and discusses desirable collaborative relationships. Changes in the objects of national security have diversified into religion, business, international relations, and people, including individuals, whose existing security objects were only the state, and the hierarchy in the national security system. As the military threats of the Cold War era are reduced, the national security hierarchy is individualized and diversified according to the national environment and national consensus, and according to each country's position, the economic, environmental, food and social security preferential security policy issues. In addition, threats to national security are being generated from a range of complex and diverse sources, and threats from within can be a direct security threat to the post-Cold War era if predominantly military predominance from external sources is a major security threat during the Cold War period. Individuals can also be the subject of security threats. Meanwhile, various threat agents such as terrorist organizations, international criminal organizations, drug trafficking organizations, and industrial espionage organizations are mass-producing, so it is necessary to review and thoroughly prepare national security factors.
    Keyword:Counterterrorism, Counterterrorism Intelligence, Transnational Threat, National Security, Security Threat
  • Today, the role of intelligence agencies is changing in each country due to the paradigm shift in global anti-terror intelligence activities. In the United States, the terrorist attacks on September 11, 2001 changed the functioning of Intelligence Community. The U.S. counter-terrorism policy in the international community is related to the Intelligence Community(IC) and the intelligence management through the intelligence organization that per-forms the role is set as the most important task of the intelligence society reform. In order to address the lack of cooperation between intelligence agencies, which have been pointed out as the main cause of intelligence failure since 9/11, and the difficulties in carrying out effective intelligence activities, the United States has taken the position of Director of National Intelligence(DNI). In addition, the US intelligence community is developing as an intelligence knowledge creation organization by collecting, producing, analyzing, and distributing counterterrorism intelligence scattered in numerous intelligence organizations. In other words, through effective intelligence sharing and support among the intelligence agencies, it is performing counter-terrorism intelligence activities through cooperation and coordination by the abstract giant organization called Intelligence Community rather than counter-terrorism activity by a single specific intelligence agency. The US Intelligence Community is composed of 16 intelligence organizations, excluding the Office of the Di-rector of National Intelligence. The Office of the Director of National Intelligence is leading the intelligence society. In order for the Intelligence Community to make comprehensive and active use of such intelligence resources, a consensus was formed, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence was established, huge budgets, people and work were gathered, and then the National Counterterrorism Center was established. This in-depth change of counter-terrorism intelligence agencies has a significant impact on not only the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) but also the changes of federal law enforcement agencies. Finally, counterterrorism intelligence activities to defend public well-being in the United States society protect civilians and cities from terrorist attacks, are an integral part of national defense in response to terrorism, and actively respond to the attacks of potential terrorists. It can be said that it is subject of expression.
    Keyword:Intelligence Community, Intelligence Sharing, Intelligence Environment, Counterterrorism, National Security
  • Technology in the digital age has become a new battleground for countering terrorism. The Internet has no time and space constraints, and it has established a cyber space that allows free expression of opinion, exchange of thoughts, rapid speed of sharing information, and building friendship with individuals from all walks of life and the place. This feature is why terrorist organizations use the Internet to achieve their goals and spread their propaganda. For this reason, the Internet has become an effective means of communication to maintain the terror network, and the spread of social media has led to the expansion of cyberspace and the multichannels of interactive communication. As a result, security threats such as the use of the Internet for terrorist purposes has also emerged. In this article, it aims to introduce how the international community has respond to the emerging threat focusing on the terrorist use of the ICT. In particular, it aims to illustrate and discuss Asia’s effort to counter terrorist use of the ICT. The international community including the United Nations is responding to security threats such as the use of the Internet for terrorist purposes by establishing a legal and policy framework, investigating cases of Internet use for terrorism purposes and gathering information, building international cooperation, and building public-private partnership(PPP). With the advent of the Fourth Industrial Revolution, the scope of its effort has been expanded to the use of Internet and other technologies for terrorism purposes. The new type of security threat is not a single type, but the sum of a small variety of non-state actors who have relatively little influence from the traditional security perspective. In particular, the extreme terrorism based on religion has been pointed out as the most important security threat. The diversification of terrorist organization, which is characterized by new terrorism, and the worldwide spread of fear of terrorism due to informationization, developing active measures for counterterrorism is getting more and more difficult. Terrorist threats that exploit information and communication technologies in the era of globalization are growing and expanding, so a more comprehensive approach to terrorism related to the Internet and information and communications technologies is required.
    Keyword:Asia Dialogue, Terrorist Use of the Internet, UNCTED, Terrorist Use of the ICT, UN Security Council Resolution
  • Today, national security throughout the world is expanding and deepening the scope and types of transnational threats such as terrorism, cybercrime, weapons of mass destruction, and drug offenses. In recent years, transnational national security threats have been dominated by non-state actors, such as individuals or various interest groups within a country, multinational corporations, international organizations, and terrorists. As these non-state actors transcended borders, their importance and role in the international society increased. In the past, information activities were mainly conducted at the national level, but the task of collecting and analyzing information about non-state actors was added. On the other hand, potential terrorism threats that threaten national security is different from traditional security threats in response. Traditional security threats, such as war and military threats, could be resolved to some extent by a realistic approach that focuses on alliances, balance of power, and collective security measures across countries. However, transnational security issues such as terrorism are largely out of the realistic framework of consciousness, and information security cooperation among nations can be relatively smooth because of the low possibility of a security dilemma in the case of such a transnational security threat. Transnational crimes that threaten national security are far more difficult tasks than traditional warfare with traditional sovereign states. It is not easy to capture the target of the terrorist organization easily, it carries out the war in the form of defensive rather than the attack by nature, and even if the current leader of the terrorist organization is arrested or dies, the successor appears constantly and it is very difficult to reach the final crush. In addition, the bottom of the issue of terrorism is based on the assumption of religion and conviction that most terrorist organizations are convinced of their final victory and never accept defeat, so that the war on terror is much more difficult and persistent than the war between countries. In addition, terrorism is a deadly threat to national security because terrorist organizations do not limit their targets even in case of attacks against innocent civilians. The emergence of such transnational threats further demands a close link between the national intelligence community and the law enforcement community. Thus, national intelligence also demands a statutory understanding comparable to that of law enforcement, which is the incarnation of the rule of law. Therefore, only when it is accompanied by a lawful understanding and understanding of national intelligence, it will provide permanent and constant value to national intelligence activities. It can be said that it is a way to systematically develop democracy, openness and national intelligence, but it should be done within the scope that the purpose of counterterrorism based on rule of law is not undermined.
    Keyword:National Security, National Security Crime, Terrorism, Transnational Crime, Security Dilemma
  • The reason why intelligence agencies investigating the crimes that threaten national security, such as terror-ism today, uses location tracking in its investigation is that it is the most effective way to investigate individuals, who were at the scene of crime, to identify suspects. In this case, the intelligence agency and the investigation agency will acquire the number of all mobile phones through the base station that is responsible for the area in question, and if there exist a certain phone number and a number of call records already known by the intelli-gence agency and investigation agency, information of a specific person to be responsible for the crime-related behavior, then the scope of investigation is limited to the telephone numbers of persons who have shown com-munication or conduct related to crime such as communication information that has been confirmed to stay in a nearby area for a long time or that they have also contacted other base stations related to the crime. However, location tracking using a base station will also get a minimum amount of calls for people who are not related to the crime. In some cases, the information that communicates with a particular base station is equivalent to the information that the communication was present near the base station. Therefore, even if the accuracy of the location information is low as long as the location information is obtained through base station investigation, the location information through base station investigation is strong. For these reasons, it is argued that it should be protected and should not be included in the communication confirmation data. Finally, if not included in the data confirming the communication, the protection of the level of the search warrants should be maintained, and related legislation on crimes that threaten national security, such as terror-ism, should be closely discussed and examined.
    Keyword:Location Tracking Investigation, Base Station Investigation, Communication Data, Communication Identification Data, National Security
  • The dominant religion in the Middle East is Islam. Since the 6th century, Islam was born in the Middle East and spread far into Western Europe, North Africa, and Southeast Asia. The pre-Islamic Middle East was a tribal society, not a centralized political system. Muhammad promoted the integration of the Arab nation, abolished polytheism, such as totemism and propagated monotheism. Islam has been regarded as the first principle to govern the politics and society of other peoples except the Jewish people in the Middle East. Muslims in the Middle East began to perceive threats to existing order destruction, as the expansion of Islam and the golden age declined, clashes with Christian civilization, and Western colonization of the Middle East. In particular, the peoples of this region tried to overcome the confusion of the Islamic community by experiencing the invasion of Western powers and colonial rule since the modern era. In addition, since the modern era, the birth of ethnocentric independent nations has been achieved in this region. Four nations built different national states, and in the course of the process, there was a conflict between the nations. In particular, the clash between Zionism and Arab nationalism has lasted for 70 years, and there is a general war, local conflict, and terrorism. Most Muslims want peace and social stability, but radicals called "Jihadists" are using indiscriminate and brutal means of terrorism to realize their idealistic society. The Jihadism they claim is different from the Jihadism, which most peaceful Muslims say. On the other hand, the extremist group does not disappear completely, and when the forces begin to weaken, new derivative organizations were created. is created. In recent years, IS(ISIS), which has occupied Syrian and Iraq territories and declared the state, has become more and more disintegrated, but the potential threat of terrorism is taken seriously as its members disperse to other regions.
    Keyword:Middle East, Jihad, Nationalism, IS, Salafist Terrorism
  • This study attempted to analyze the main causes of terrorist incidents. The purpose of this study is to see how it affects terrorist attacks. In particular, this study focused on Ripple Effect. The factors that can be identified before the terrorist attacks were classified as One Ripple Effect as it can detect the phenomenon before the terrorist attacks. These processes would be able to respond in a precise way to reduce terrorist damage. The result of analysis showed that ideology and poverty of the country were not the factors that raised the level of terror damage. Thus, it was confirmed that the damage was increased in the case of Ripple Effect. This was a natural consequence. However, this study could suggest that the variables constructed to identify the ripple effect were measured as identifiable factors before the terrorist attacks, so that prompt and precise responses were required under the same circumstances. This study used Global Terrorism Data(GTD) for research analysis. Data was analyzed from 2014 to 2016, and the raw data was used. In order to measure the independent variables that this study wanted to check, variables were transformed and used in analysis. The independent variables used for this analysis were Ideology, Ripple Effect, and Money Demand. In addition, the dependent variable was used as a damage that combines the wounded and Kills(including terrorists) in the event of terrorism. In the final model, the Money Demand variable was not regularized and was excluded. It is the limit of this study that the poverty of the country is to be confirmed through Money Demand. However, it is clear from the point of view that the demand for money is a proof of poverty, and that the research has proceeded. In conclusion, even in the case of terrorism based on ideology and national poverty, there should be a more precise response to the reduction of damage in the situation where Ripple Effect is predicted. The variables that make up the Ripple Effect include political objectives, message delivery, and terrorist targets. Therefore, even though we did not control many variables, it can be based on the fact that concrete action should be prepared in a situation where there is a concern about ripple effect.
    Keyword:Terrorism, Ripple Effect, Poverty, Ideology, Terrorist Damage
  • North Korea has launched a number of missile tests and developed different kinds of missiles. As you know, a ballistic missile can be used as a means for Weapons of Mass Destruction(WMD) by flying most of the flight time outside the atmosphere at high speeds. Due to its flight characteristic, it is difficult to estimate and predict the trajectory of the end-stage flight. In addition, there are technical difficulties in terms of defense. These ballistic missile threats are continuing to be developed since more than 25 countries are in possession of ballistic missiles, such as silos, transportable chemicals, biological or nuclear weapons. After the end of the Cold War, Third World states started to possess some forms of ballistic missiles. That has created a serious security threat, and in particular, the development of North Korean nuclear capabilities and WMD which are threats to Northeast Asian security. Moreover, the participation of Third World states in missile development and technology has been significantly increased. For instance, North Korea's rocket technology is reached at a certain level. And, in December 2012, the satellites of Taepodong-3, a 10,000-km-class ICBM rocket, were orbited. As a result, these threats have now become a global security threat, including to the United States and out of Northeast Asia. Through its experience in developing ballistic missiles over the last three decades, it is true that North Korea has technological limitations, such as reentry technology and miniaturization of nuclear warheads. North Korea conducted the fourth nuclear test with “test hydrogen” in January 2016 and conducted the sixth nuclear test with the “hydrogen bomb for intercontinental ballistic missile(ICBM)” in September 2017. In his 2018 New Year’s Speech, Kim Jong Un announced the “historic accomplishment of completing our nuclear capabilities.” In July and November of the same year, he “successfully” fired the ICBM tests. After all, Kim Jong Un declared "the achievement of the historical cause of the nation's nuclear armed forces and the achievement of the rocket-powered nation" to the world. In the context of this situation, we should analyze North Korea’s ballistic missiles technological level and prospect in near future. Especially, since North Korea had tried to accomplish nuclear experiment and SLBM/ICBM launch, it is very important to evaluate North Korea’s missiles technology and limitations and prospect North Korea’s next action. In order to complement technological problems, North Korea has secured continuous technology both domestically and internationally. I will make an effort to analyze North Korean technological problems. Lastly, we prospect that North Korea will cease all nuclear and ICBM testing and open to dialogue with the modes of negotiation. However, at the same time, there are some contradictions that prospect it will continue to pursue nuclear and missile capabilities by buying more time . In this context, my report will briefly assess North Korea's military behavior.
    Keyword:Missile Technology, North Korea, Ballistic Missiles, Reentry Technology, Nuclear Warhead
  • As Korea is changing into a multi-racial and multicultural society, the number of immigrants has exceeded two million people, making heterogeneous members in Korea society increase. The changes in Korean society are similar to those of the international migration phenomenon that occurs globally. The phenomenon that individuals of diverse nationalities leave their origin country affects the various institutions of origin and destination countries, playing a key role in social transformation. However, not everyone agrees with this change. There is also a movement to resist social change derived from international migration, which usually appears in the form of fundamentalism. In addition, social and economic instability is presented as a key link in the process of transforming this fundamentalism into violent extremism. It is argued that radicalization and violent extremism are root cause of recent terrorist attacks in Europe as a form of lone wolf terrorism. Even though political and religious motives are different from each case, it is remark-able to focus that radicalism and violent extremism are commonly observed in these cases as the underlying causes. Republic of Korea is not free from violent extremism spreading to Asia, making it urgent to homegrown terrorism and lone wolf terrorism. In order to prevent violent extremism, all aspects of social efforts are required. Therefore, it is appropriate to prevent violence from the economic, social and educational level as well as the law enforcement related to police activities. That is, the response to radicalism is characterized by a social and economic response to the improvement of the environment that promotes radicalization and the spread of violent extremism, in which not only the government but also religion, education, business, and civil society participate. In particular, it is pointed out that the social integration of social minority groups and vulnerable groups, which can be transformed into violent extremism with radicalism, is the most important. This article is an exploratory research for the prevention of violent extremism in the context of Korea Peninsula, reviewing on the explanatory models on violent extremism.
    Keyword:Radicalization, Violent Extremism, Terrorism, Counterterrorism, Countering Violent Extremism